Make Informed Decisions across the Value Chain in the Philippines Power Market

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Optimization Model

Validated with respect to actual historical numbers

Cloud-Hosted

Access virtually anywhere without any software licensing or installation

User Driven

Generate scenarios, run models, and analyze results

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Philippines Power Market

Philippines is a net fossil energy importer and for power generation it relies heavily on imported coal. On an average, nearly half of the country’s primary energy needs are met through imported fuels, leading to energy security related challenges. To ensure availability of sustainable, reliable, and secure energy, Philippines has set an ambitious Renewable Energy (RE) expansion target – to raise installed RE generation capacity by 2030 to almost three times of its 2010 level i.e., from 5,438 megawatts (MW) to 15,304 MW. 

Recently, as a part of the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), Philippines committed to undertake GHG (CO2e) emissions reduction of about 70% by 2030 relative to its BAU scenario over the 2000-2030 period. Power sector would be a key contributor to meet this target.

Philippines Market
  • Challenges in Philippines Market
  • 1
    Grid-integration is challenging from a system operator as well as planner’s perspective
  • 2
    Developers want to know actual amount of electricity that can be sold into the market
  • 3
    New RE investors need to assess the commercial viability of their projects before committing
  • 4
    Proper market mechanisms and policy structures are required to justify investment

However, growing share of Renewable Energy brings its own challenges such as grid integration due to intermittency of resources, estimates around electricity generation and potential tariffs along with overall commercial viability that need to be effectively assessed for the benefit of any market participant. Additionally, proper market mechanisms and policy structures are required to justify investment into flexible capacity for RE integration. These challenges require a suitable modelling framework to analyze these aspects from multiple perspectives.

Genesis Ray modelling framework for Philippines is such a power market modelling and optimisation tool with a rich database of the country’s power infrastructure, nodal RE resource variability, demand pattern, and representation of market operational procedures. It enables the analysis of power dispatch, generation mix, electricity prices, power flow etc. supporting informed decision making by new investors, system planners and market operators.

Genesis Ray's
Philippines Power Market Model

A single platform that can help to answer diverse questions from stakeholders across the energy value chain - project developers, investors, fuel suppliers, equipment suppliers, system planners and lenders.

1

Loaded with a rich database of the country’s power infrastructure, nodal RE resource variability, demand pattern, and representation of market procedures

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Simulate day-do-day Philippines power system and market operations to estimate realistic unit wise power dispatch and nodal electricity prices

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Equipped with a series of dedicated scenario generation, model run, visualization and result analysis modules

Genesis Ray Power Market Model is capable of simulating the day-do-day Philippines power system and market operations to estimate realistic unit wise power dispatch and nodal electricity prices

Questions that the Power Model Addresses

  • What is the unit wise power dispatch of thermal generators in future RE dominated scenarios?
  • What alternate bidding strategies at various hours of operation will lead to increased utilization and profit for the existing thermal plants?
  • What is the market electricity price at certain locations of the Philippines grid? How the prices vary with RE resource variability and how it affects a RE project’s financial forecast?
  • What is the forecasted demand for fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas for power generation?
  • How future uncertainties associated with RE generation can be modelled for judicious decision-making though multiple probable scenarios?
  • What is the power generation mix and RE penetration level nationally as well as at certain location?
  • Should flexible technologies such as storage and gas fired plants be promoted for investment at certain locations helping RE integration?
  • What are the unit wise and total power sector emissions? Whether various national power system transition plans shall help to meet decarbonization targets?
  • Is there sufficient future demand for gas for the Philippines power sector to underpin the financing of LNG projects? How would these gas-fired plants run and what impact would the generation profiles have on shipping and storage infrastructure costs?
  • What is the value of an existing generating asset (based on NPV of future contract and spot revenues over its remaining life)?

Power Market Model Designed for You

An unique tool useful for diverse participants in the Philippines Renewable and Electricity Market, thoroughly validated for robustness by back-casting method with respect to actual historical datasets

New investors, Project Developers & Financial Institutions

Take informed decisions such as asset valuation; the financial returns assessment of a specific RE project using realistic future electricity price at certain locations.

Owners of Existing fossil-based Generators

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Formulate alternate market bidding strategies at various hours of operation leading to increased utilisation and profit in an RE dominated system

System Planners

Analyze various ‘what-if’ scenarios of future system transition to maintain generation adequacy and system reliability

Fuel Suppliers

Assess the demand for fuel, how these changes over time, the elasticity of demand and the key drivers of competing fuels

Regulators & Policy Makers

Assess the impact of regulatory or policy changes including the market power of existing participants and identify anticompetitive behavior

Retailers and Large Industrial Customers

Identify contracting opportunities and the risks of various contract structures

Genesis Ray Power Market Model is capable of simulating the day-do-day Philippines power system and market operations to estimate realistic unit wise power dispatch and regional electricity prices

The Fundamental Structure of the Model

Genesis Ray Philippines Power Market Model is an optimisation tool for simulating national power market and system operations. It captures various roles and decision-making process of Philippines’ key power market agents like generating companies, market operators, and demand loads.

Broad outline of Market Modelling and Analysis Framework
Broad outline of Market Modelling and Analysis Framework

At the core of the Philippines Power Market Model is a security constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch (SCUC&ED) model to optimize day-to-day system and power market operations. Using GENCOs’ offers, demand bids, and expected RE generation it maximizes total economic surplus or alternativity minimize the total operating cost subject to various technical constraints of generating units, transmission lines, and market regulations.

Input Output
Inputs and Outputs of Genesis Ray Philippines Power Market Model

A Cloud Hosted Flexible Platform

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Scenario Generation

A scenario generation and running utility where user can generate multiple scenarios for analysis and can initiate runs at one go

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Bring Your Own Data

Specification of scenarios established by importing user’s own datasets or manually performed through the tool's GUI

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Visualization & Aggregation

A rich data aggregation and visualization module which integrates with the Model and enable user’s need of scenario analysis

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